“If the government wanted people to drive safely, they’d mandate a spike in the middle of each steering wheel.” Gordon Tullock

I’m a slow learner, but one of the things I think I’ve learned since lockdown is not to try and have a rational argument with anyone on Twitter. Especially about PPE masks. A domain where there are far too many people with strong opinions and far too few with any actual knowledge. That’s knowledge as in either the realities stopping airborne 80nm diameter virus particles from entering the mouth or nose, or the usually less than rational quirks of human behaviour.

We live and learn. Only without the learning part, usually.

The most vociferous faction of the pro-mask lobby assumes that ‘there’s no downside’ to wearing a mask so therefore everyone should wear one. In the real world, meanwhile, there are, numerous, clear downsides should anyone care to spend more than five minutes thinking about it.

Masks, in economist, Gordon Tullock’s world, are the opposite of what has come to be known in engineering circles as a Tullock Spike. A Tullock Spike is something that looks dangerous, but instead works to increase safety. Next time you find yourself unlocked and out in a car, if you can imagine driving along with a Tullock Spike half an inch from your chest, you are going to drive much more safely than if you’re in a Stage 1, 2 or 3 autonomous vehicle, swigging Red Bull, and surrounded by a dozen airbags. Counter-intuitive, but demonstrably true. Except for the Red Bull bit.

Masks make people feel safer than they actually are. Unless, of course, they are NBC hazmat-suit grade protective equipment, in which case virus ingestion becomes the least of your problems (not drowning in your own sweat usually being the most pressing one). If you’re wearing an N95, you are not nearly as safe as you likely feel. And if you’re wearing a home-made mask, the misunderstanding becomes even worse.

So, this weekend’s challenge is to come up with a concept of a Tullock Spike for Covid-19: something (not that it has to be a ‘thing’) that makes people feel ‘unsafe’, but as a result, makes them actually safer.

I’ve got a target of 10,000 words to write for the next book over the weekend, but I’ve also promised myself I’ll think about the problem and publish what I come up with early next week. All thoughts and contributions welcome.