I’m sitting in a depressing Starbucks, drinking an even more depressing Latte. Everything (in the UK) is breaking. I start wondering how long it will be before we hit bottom. A calculation that demands some systems thinking.
Although there are myriad definitions of what a ‘system’ is, there is some kind of consensus to say that it is a combination of elements that ‘do something’. Such that, for example, in order to do something like achieve an Apocalypse, it will require the presence of a system. According to http://systematic-innovation.com/assets/iss-205-apr-19.pdf, there are three kinds of system.
The second of the three types is one that is ‘uncontrolled’. That is, a system that will deliver the desired outcome – ‘Apocalypse’ in this example – but the speed and manner by which the outcome is delivered is not under control. This type of system needs a minimum of four elements: A source of energy (‘Engine’), a means of connecting (‘Transmission’) that energy to a ‘Tool’ that delivers the outcome by acting on an Interface.
The biblical Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, correspond fairly accurately to these four elements. Something like this:
They typically form a self-perpetuating cycle, in this case, something like this:
So far so bad.
There have been several – usually semi-humorous – attempts to identify additional Horsemen. Some have suggested things like climate change, inflation or debt, but my recent favourite has been ‘misinformation’:
What I like about it – although I’m not certain that ‘like’ is the correct expression – is that it points clearly to one of the two elements that would be required to turn an uncontrolled system into one that becomes ‘controlled’. According to the Law Of System Completeness, if someone wanted to achieve a controlled Apocalypse, they would need to add a Sensor and a Coordination element to the Engine, Transmission, Tool and Interface contained within the uncontrolled system. Misinformation fulfils the role of the ‘Sensor’ quite nicely. Which then just leaves us missing the Coordinator:
What might that be, I wonder? Who or what might be the Coordinator of a controlled Apocalypse?
First thoughts head in the direction of the Conservative Government in the UK. Mainly because, per the reason I’m sat in this Starbucks, it feels like everything from the NHS to the transport infrastructure to the fact that I’m told it will be a week before I get an internet signal in the office again, is collapsing around me.
Prior to the disappearance of my internet, the last thing I saw was Rishi Sunak’s, delivered-with-a-knowing-grin, New Year message of doom. Maybe this was a sign? Except no. The UK has already descended into insignificance in global terms. If there’s to be a controlled Apocalypse, I needed to think bigger. What cabal’s of dysfunction is Rishi Sunak connected to? The G7? Not secret enough. How about the World Economic Forum? Here’s what their website currently says:
“The Forum engages the foremost political, business, cultural and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. It was established in 1971 as a not-for-profit foundation and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. It is independent, impartial and not tied to any special interests. The Forum strives in all its efforts to demonstrate entrepreneurship in the global public interest while upholding the highest standards of governance. Moral and intellectual integrity is at the heart of everything it does.”
Hmm. Law Of Unintended Consequence-wise, that seems to fit the bill perfectly. Insert image of a Sixth Horsemen here. It is Klaus Schwab. On a lizard. Wielding a broken abacus and a syringe.
Gotcha. Controlled Apocalypse, come in please, your time is up.
Barista, time for another Latte, please…
